Best Bets Week 2 Nfl
Well, that didn’t go so hot.
After a profitable 2019 season, we were 0-for-3 here in our 2020 Week 1 underdog selections as the Carolina Panthers (by a point), Cleveland Browns (23.5 points) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.5 points) all fell short of covering. And, yes, “falling short” hardly covers it with the Browns.
Cleveland will try to pick itself up off the mat this week and so will we. Here are your Week 2 NFL underdog bets, utilizing the early Thursday lines from BetMGM.
NFL Betting News. Jeff Siegel's Best Bets for Friday (2-12) By Jeff. A new week begins with a relatively quiet betting slate filled with 10-plus college.
- Some teams come into the week hoping to avoid that dreaded 0-2 record, which spells doom for about 90% of teams, while others hope to build on the momentum gained from an opening week victory. Week 2 is one of the hardest weeks to bet in the NFL because it’s so early to overreact to what we saw in Week 1, but let’s get into the picks.
- A beloved national treasure, Hammer enters NFL Week 16 on a stunning run: Over the final 10 weeks of last season and through 15 weeks this season, he is a blistering 45-27 on his NFL best bets, a.
NFL underdog best bets: Week 2
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Recency bias is evident here as a Philly team, coming off an ugly 27-17 road loss as a favorite in Washington, is a home dog against an LA squad coming off a hard-fought home win in primetime over the Dallas Cowboys.
Injuries have hit the Eagles hard so far, but things are looking up on that front with RB Miles Sanders and OT Lane Johnson appearing on track to return and play Sunday after missing the opener. Johnson’s presence is more important than you might think as Philly is 36-17 with the All-Pro left tackle in the lineup during head coach Doug Pederson’s tenure and 6-12 without him, including last week when Washington racked up eight sacks in the comeback win.
The Rams are anything but road slouches after going 6-2 against the spread away from home a year ago, but they’re traveling cross country to play an early game Sunday at 10 a.m. Pacific time against a smarting Eagles bunch in its home opener.
Go with Philly to cover (+1.5, -110) and win outright (+100).
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Detroit Lions (+6) at Green Bay Packers
The Lions opened in true Lions fashion last week as they blew a 23-6 fourth-quarter lead at home and saw rookie RB D’Andre Swift drop a potential winning touchdown reception late in a 27-23 defeat against the Chicago Bears.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, was carving up the host Minnesota Vikings in Week 1’s other NFC North head-to-head matchup, throwing for 364 yards and four TDs in a 43-34 victory.
A quick glance at the recent Packers-Lions series, though, shows Detroit surprisingly has had the upper hand, winning four of the last six meetings outright and going 6-0 ATS.
Green Bay squeaked out 23-22 and 23-20 wins a season ago, and we’re banking on a similar result Sunday at Lambeau Field (sadly) sans 81,000 cheese-headed fans.
Take the Lions and the 6 points (-110).
Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Going from Lambeau, the league’s second-oldest stadium, to one of the newest, the Silver & Black open Allegiant Stadium with a Monday Night Football matchup against the Saints.
The “Death Star” will be devoid of fans as well, but expect head coach Jon Gruden’s crew to be fired up nonetheless to christen its shiny new Sin City digs.
The Saints were tough on the road with 6-1 straight up and ATS marks a season ago, but it wouldn’t be a shocker to see a little bit of letdown following last Sunday’s big divisional home win over Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Go with the Raiders +5.5 (-110) to keep things within the number.
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Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (1-2 record), Joe Fortenbaugh (2-4), Anita Marks (5-1), Preston Johnson (3-3) and Tyler Fulghum (0-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (3-1), Seth Walder (4-1) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (3-2) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday night.
8:20 p.m. ET
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-4, 45)
Fortenbaugh: Solid debut for the new-look Patriots in Week 1, who posted a healthy 5.1 yards per carry average while converting 50% of their third-down opportunities. Now the Cam Newton experiment travels west to face a Seahawks defense that will have minimal tape to study in its preparation for New England's new zone-read concepts. No '12th Man' is a big blow for Seattle. Don't be surprised if the Pats pull the upset.
Pick: Patriots +4
Bearman: I unfortunately watched every play of the Patriots' game last week and did not come away as impressed as Joe was on New England. The Dolphins seemed to have forgotten that Cam Newton can run and allowed the Pats to control the line at will. Cam was efficient on offense vs. a soft Miami defense. That won't be the case against the Seahawks, who held the Falcons in check in building a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter before the Falcons did what they do best and put up yards and points after the game is out of hand.
With all due respect to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins, we will get a better sense of how much the Patriots lost on defense from last year vs. a Russell Wilson-led offense that did whatever they wanted against the Falcons in Week 1. Expect more of a reality check for Cam and the Patriots out west.
Pick: Seahawks -4
Marks: Seattle finally unleashed 'Mr. Unlimited,' and Russell Wilson was exactly that -- unlimited. Wilson took more shots down field than we have ever seen before, destroying Atlanta's secondary for 322 yards and four touchdowns. I expect more of the same against the Patriots on Sunday night, especially with a number of key Pats defenders absent.
Pete Carroll is 15-1 at home in September and 19-3 in prime-time games. Patriots QB Cam Newton was very conservative in the passing game against the Dolphins, rushing for 75 yards and two touchdowns. That will not be the case against a good Seahawks rushing defense in Week 2.
Pick: Seahawks -4
1 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Rams (-1, 45.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Schatz: This strikes me as the Week 2 line with the most overreaction to Week 1. Yes, the Eagles looked terrible in their loss to Washington. Carson Wentz was awful, taking eight sacks with 10% completion percentage below expectation, according to Next Gen Stats data. But consider what we thought of these teams before the season. Most observers would have had the Eagles ahead of the Rams. Football Outsiders had the two teams roughly equal, but even so, if home-field advantage still means anything, the Eagles should be slightly favored here. As for injuries, Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders should return this week. Given what the Washington pass rush did to Wentz, Johnson is certainly the more important player to watch.
Pick: Eagles +1
Walder: By the time the ball arrived at its intended target last week, Zach Ertz was 20 or more yards downfield just twice. That's on all routes, not just his targets. It seems like a decent gamble to make that he won't catch a pass that deep, given the relative infrequency with which he is that far downfield. Sure, yards after catch are a thing, but Ertz is well below average in that department. According to Next Gen Stats' YAC over expectation, Ertz ranked 11th-worst among all players with at least 50 receptions.
Pick: Ertz longest reception under 19.5 yards
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6, 42)
Fortenbaugh: This is too many points to lay for a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense that was playing brutal football prior to a fourth-quarter explosion in Detroit on Sunday. The Bears concluded Week 1 having converted just two of 11 third-down opportunities while the defense allowed 35-year-old Adrian Peterson to average a ridiculous 6.6 yards per rushing attempt. The Giants are a work in progress, but I believe they're being undervalued here because of Monday night's loss to Pittsburgh. News flash: The Steelers are nasty, yet the Giants found a way to keep it within one score until the fourth quarter.
Pick: Giants +6
Bearman: I made one win total bet back in April when the schedule was released and that was Bears under 8.5. Let's not confuse the Lions' collapse last Sunday and sudden emergence of Trubisky in the fourth quarter as a sign the Bears are going to go over .500 this year. Or that they deserve to be laying 6 points vs. anyone. This is too much of an overreaction. Entering the fourth in Detroit, the Bears were 1-for-10 converting third and fourth down and had only six points; they were being totally outplayed by a not great Lions team.The Giants didn't exactly light up the scoreboard Monday night vs. a tough Steelers team, but they did move the ball well at times, suffering from some questionable Daniel Jones passes.
One of the hardest things to judge in NFL betting is Week 1 overreactions, but I think we pinpointed one here. If D'Andre Swift catches that ball in the end zone or Matthew Stafford doesn't throw an inexplicable interception with 2:45 left, this line is around 3 or 4. Take the points and watch a different game.
Pick: Giants +6
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9, 47.5)
Schatz: Overs were 9-7 in Week 1, and based on FO's DVOA metric, offenses were about 9% more efficient than they were in 2019. So I'm going strong on overs again this week. We have the Panthers with the worst defensive projection in the league this season, and they finished 27th in DVOA in Week 1. They've turned over most of their defense and started three rookies against the Raiders last week.
The Tampa Bay offense should score more points than it did against a much better Saints defense in Week 1. The Carolina offense is also improved this year with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, although they may need to take to the air more often this Sunday. Christian McCaffrey could struggle against a Tampa Bay defense that ranked first against the run by DVOA last year and third against the run in Week 1. Against the pass, the Bucs were 13th last year and 16th in Week 1.
Pick: Over 47.5.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 52.5)
Schatz: The Cowboys only scored 17 points in Week 1, but playing the Falcons is very different than playing the Rams. There's no Aaron Donald on this defensive line and no Jalen Ramsey in the secondary. The Falcons have young cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and Isaiah Oliver trying to establish themselves in the NFL. Their front ranked just 27th in pressure rate a year ago. On the other side, you've got Matt Ryan with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley going up against a Dallas defense with a relative weakness in the secondary.
Most important for over/under, these teams are going to be running a lot of plays. In Week 1, Dallas ranked first in the league in both total pace and situation-neutral pace. Atlanta was third in total pace and 11th in situation-neutral pace. Football Outsiders' fantasy projections for Week 2 have Ryan and Dak Prescott ranked 1-2 in projected yardage. There's going to be a lot of offense in this game. Our simulations suggest the over/under should be closer to 60.
Pick: Over 52.5.
San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42) at New York Jets
Kezirian: I am not ready to bury the 49ers, although I do think they have their work cut out for them this season. San Francisco is still solid and merely lost a close game to a team that's on the rise (Arizona). In fact, over the past decade, playoff teams that lost the season opener the following season are 18-9 ATS in Week 2. I fully expect San Francisco to bounce back in a large way against what might be the NFL's worst team, which also just lost Le'Veon Bell to injury. I am concerned with the George Kittle injury, but I just cannot pass up this situational spot to back San Francisco.
Additionally, I am not worried about playing in that early time slot. Since the start of last season, teams in the Pacific Time Zone are 11-4-1 ATS in 1 p.m. ET road games against teams in the Eastern Time Zone (13-3 SU). Additionally, in the past five seasons, Pacific Standard Time teams are 26-20 and 26-17-3 ATS in those spots. I also lean to the under, as I doubt the Jets can do much offensively.
Pick: 49ers -7
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-6, 49.5)
Johnson: The Lions suffered injuries in Week 1 against the Bears, and none is more damaging than CB Justin Coleman being placed on injured reserve. It wasn't entirely a coincidence that Detroit gave up 21 straight points to Mitchell Trubisky in the fourth quarter. Now they have to travel to Lambeau Field to face a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers with a hampered defense and what is looking like a second straight week without WR Kenny Golladay, who didn't practice Thursday. We snagged the -5.5 when I posted my first look at the Week 2 lines on Monday morning, but I still think it's a profitable play at -6 or better.
Pick: Packers -6
Walder: Last week I wrote about how far downfield Lions receivers ran routes last season. That pattern held up in Week 1. Detroit players running routes were 13.9 yards downfield, on average, three seconds into pass plays (Marvin Hall led the league at a remarkable 16.6 yards, though he only ran 10 routes). As an underdog at Green Bay, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and Matthew Stafford will have even more reason to dial up deep shots. This becomes a particularly attractive bet if Golladay -- who ran the fifth-highest rate of vertical routes among receivers with at least 200 routes run last season -- is able to play.
Pick: Stafford longest completion over 38.5 yards
Buffalo Bills (-5.5, 41) at Miami Dolphins
Schatz: Here's another over I'm going with for Week 2, but this time it's counter to what happened in Week 1. The Bills-Jets game went over, but the Dolphins-Patriots game did not. Nonetheless, I'm counting on my research showing that we know more from preseason projections and last year's games than we do from just one week of play. Yes, I had the Bills as my best projected defense in the preseason, but the Dolphins' defense was the worst in the league last season and was projected to be poor again this season. Although the Dolphins' defense looked better than projected in Week 1, so did the Bills' offense. Meanwhile, the Bills' defense let the Jets move the ball in the second half and could do the same here even if Buffalo takes an early lead.
Pick: Over 41
Fortenbaugh: Last week's look-ahead line had the Bills as a 3-point favorite in this matchup. Since that time, Buffalo predictably took care of business against the Jets, while the Dolphins, predictably, lost at New England. Now the Bills are laying 5.5 points on the road against a division opponent? This one smells funky. With the total lined in the neighborhood of 41 points, Vegas is telling you it doesn't expect much scoring in Miami on Sunday, so I'm happy to back a deep Dolphins secondary playing at home against a familiar foe with 5.5 points in my pocket.
Pick: Dolphins +5.5
Marks: Oddsmakers keep disrespecting the Bills, and that's OK ... because I'll continue to buy new shoes! How is this line only 5.5? The Bills manhandled the Jets last week. Josh Allen tossed the rock for more than 300 yards (yes, you read that correctly). The addition of Stefon Diggs and implementing more play-action has done the offense good. The Bills, under Sean McDermott, are (5-1) straight up and (4-2) ATS. The Dolphins lost to the Pats in Week 1 and allowed Cam Newton to rush for 75 yards, so imagine what Allen could do on Sunday. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still tossing INTs -- he had three last Sunday -- and could be without star receiver DeVante Parker, who has a hamstring injury.
Pick: Bills -5.5
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, 41.5)
Fortenbaugh: I've got no issue laying the big number with a lightning-quick Pittsburgh defense that held the Giants to just 291 total yards in Week 1 while racking up three sacks and two interceptions. This unit is stacked at all three levels and is going to cause a world of problems for a Denver offense that went 3-for-9 on third down at home against the Titans on Monday night while scoring only 19 points. Tennessee's win was more impressive than the final score indicated.
And while we're at it, what was Broncos head coach Vic Fangio doing with his timeouts at the end of the game? Big coaching edge for the Steelers in this one, who will be a very popular 6-point teaser leg in Week 2.
Pick: Steelers -7.5
Schatz: JuJu Smith-Schuster is back! Or, more accurately, Ben Roethlisberger is back. With better quarterback play, Smith-Schuster's game returned, as the Steelers' receiver caught all six targets last week for 69 yards and two scores. This is a good matchup for the Steelers' No. 1 receiver; last year No. 1 wide receivers' yardage increased by 35% per target playing against Denver, and the Broncos' top cornerback, A.J. Bouye, just went on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. Just remember to watch Smith-Schuster's injury status; he's listed as questionable with a knee injury, although he practiced in full on Thursday.
Pick: Smith-Schuster over 61.5 receiving yards
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 48.5)
Fortenbaugh: What the heck happened to the Vikings team that concluded the 2019 campaign ranked fifth in scoring defense? Minnesota surrendered an embarrassing 43 points while allowing Aaron Rodgers to complete a ridiculous 72% of his passes ... not to mention the fact that Green Bay converted 54.5% of its third down opportunities in Week 1. Mike Zimmer has a big problem on his hands with this secondary. Speaking of secondaries, I'm guessing Kirk Cousins will have some fun against a Colts defense that allowed Gardner Minshew II to complete 19 of 20 passes in Week 1. Expect scoring and lots of it in this one.
Pick: Over 48
Johnson: The Minnesota defense looks like it has taken a giant step back this season after giving up 43 points to Green Bay in Week 1. The Vikings looked especially bad in the secondary, as Rodgers threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns. Everyone will talk about Indianapolis' loss to Jacksonville, but the Colts' offense was able to move the ball just fine; in fact, the Colts didn't punt once in the game. The Colts outgained the Jaguars by more than 200 yards, and they had 10 more first downs. Two Philip Rivers interceptions and two more turnovers on downs wound up being the difference, but this certainly isn't an offense I'm worried about against the Vikings' defense. On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis allowed Minshew to throw for three touchdowns on 19-for-20 passing.
Best Bets Against The Spread Week 2 Nfl
You never want to overreact to a single game, but I think an adjustment to my Minnesota priors was warranted and this total is now too low.
Pick: Over 48
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-8.5, 42.5)
Fulghum: This is an optimal spot for Derrick Henry and the Titans to bludgeon the Jags after their plucky little Week 1 upset victory over the Colts.
Best Bets Week 2 Nfl 2019
Usually a Thursday Night Football special, don't expect the Titans and Jags to all of a sudden light it up because the matchup is actually being played on a Sunday. Despite the win in Week 1, the Jags' offense ran a league-low 47 plays from scrimmage in the victory. Doug Marrone is literally in no hurry as he attempts to limit play volume. Last season, the Jags were the third-slowest team in situation-neutral pace, and last week they were even more methodical with the second slowest situation-neutral pace.
As more than a touchdown favorite, the game script sets up as ideally as possible for the Titans' star running back. Coming off a 34-touch game at altitude against the Broncos, Henry should be in line for another voluminous day of opportunity. Henry has absolutely smashed the Jags in his career. In his past six games against the Jags' defense, Henry has totaled 725 yards of offense (120.8 YPG) and nine total touchdowns. It should surprise no one if Henry is the top scoring running back for fantasy purposes in Week 2.
Pick: Titans -8.5
4 p.m. ET
Washington at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 47.5)
Marks: Both teams looked good in Week 1, and my only loss last week was Washington upsetting the Eagles. Ugh! But the Eagles went into the game down six starters and lost another three during the game. This week is a much different animal for Ron Rivera's squad, literally as well as figuratively. Washington's defensive line won't have as much success against Kyler Murray and his offensive line. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins makes Arizona's offense a legit threat. Meanwhile, Washington doesn't have the offensive roster to keep pace; they averaged a league-low 3.4 yards per play in Week 1. Jump on this line before it jumps up to -7.
Pick: Cardinals -6.5
Johnson: This is a straightforward numbers play for me with my points projection coming in at 45.5. The Washington defense certainly looked the part of the elite talent it has been stacking in drafts the last few seasons, and the Arizona defense just limited the 49ers to 20 points in its Week 1 upset win. The Cardinals benefited from San Francisco only converting just two of its 11 third-down attempts (0-2 on fourth down, too), but it's an improvement from last year, regardless. Arizona hosting the Washington offense shouldn't scare us away, so I'm trusting my projections and betting on my first under of the season.
Pick: Under 47.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 47.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Walder: I have a hard time believing the Chargers will be anything but far behind the Chiefs on Sunday. And that means opening up the passing and throwing downfield, which means passes to Mike Williams. Williams' targets last season averaged an incredibly deep 17.3 air yards. He received 90 targets last season -- so, between five and six per game -- but given the expected game script and the fact he earned nine targets in Week 1 and probably only needs a couple receptions to hit the over here, I like his chances.
Pick: Williams' total receiving yards over 42.5
Baltimore Ravens (-7, 5) at Houston Texans
Kezirian: At some point, we need to start cashing in on Baltimore's dominance. In 2019, the Ravens ended the regular season with 12 straight wins. It is incredibly difficult to prepare for this unique offense, as it demands extreme discipline and attention to detail that I maintain we typically only see in the playoffs.
Regardless, this is a team that had a projected regular-season win total of 12 facing one with 7.5 that many expected to take a giant step backward. The Texans do have Deshaun Watson and nearly covered through the backdoor in the opener against KC. I'd rather bank on an elite team to win the game.
Pick: Teaser: Ravens -1 and 49ers -1