Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips

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2020 Kentucky Derby Betting Tips, Best Bookmakers & Free Bets The Kentucky Derby is the holy grail of horse racing in America and it's considered 'the most exciting two minutes in sport'. Run over 2012m at Churchill Downs every May, the best three-year-olds take to the dirt track in Kentucky for a chance to etch their name alongside the many. May 03, 2019 The 2019 Kentucky Derby is nearly here, and some massively-important changes have been made to the race lineup in the hours leading up to the start. For the 145 th running of the Kentucky Derby, Omaha Beach was listed as the betting favorite on race week. However, early on Thursday morning, Omaha Beach was scratched from the lineup. Leading Kentucky Derby Contenders. The top horses in Bovada's 2019 Kentucky Derby future book: Instagrad (EVEN) The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee has shown little on track to justfy his current position as favorite. The bay colt was third in his 2019 debut at the Gotham Stakes in March.

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On any typical Saturday, I might hear it once or twice, but everything becomes magnified on the first Saturday in May.

2019

'Who do you like?'

'What are you betting?'

'Who are you using?'

The questions I hear over and over again are understandable. The Kentucky Derby is the big one, after all.

It's the one race of the year when even the most casual observer tunes in. As a lifetime lover of racing, a turf writer and a handicapper, I am always more than happy to give my opinion...even to those I only hear from just before the first Saturday in May.

Actually, the Kentucky Derby is only part of the equation this week at Churchill Downs for handicappers. The big one is supported by numerous other prestigious races, including the Kentucky Oaks. As a bettor who likes to go for big scores, many of my plays this week will involve multiple races. I will also look to the trifecta as my go-to wager in the Kentucky Derby.

With another deep field set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, I see great value in this year's Derby, despite believing the top horses are for real. Of the seven horses I expect to be among the favorites, I will not be using two of them. I believe that both Maximum Security and Vekoma are both speed types who have benefitted from great race setups in their big prep wins. At the 10 furlongs of the Derby, I expect both to fade out of the top three.

Maximum Security Horse

This leaves Tacitus, Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster and Omaha Beach as my five horses to beat. I don't see too much to separate any of them and I will be using all five in my trifectas.

I will also be playing my top three longshots. Code of Honor, Win Win Win, and By My Standards are all horses I can easily see running big, and finishing well, at odds in the 20-1 range.

My first trifecta play will be a simple eight-horse box using all of them, of course, pending Tuesday's post position draw. A 50-cent wager will cost $168, and as long as the top choices don't run 1-2-3, the payoff will be worth much more.

I will also play another trifecta using my top picks at the value on top. This ticket will have Tacitus, Game Winner, Improbable and Code of Honor in the top spot; all eight of my main plays in second; and the same eight, plus longshots Spinoff, Country House, and Long Range Toddy will be on my ticket for third. This 50-cent bet will cost $126.

As mentioned, I will be investing plenty into multi-race wagers, including the Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby Pick 3, as well as the Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5 leading into the Derby. All three can be made for a 50-cents base, so the opportunity to spread it around and include live longshots will be there.

In the Kentucky Oaks and the Turf Classic, Bellafina and Bricks and Mortar will be the heavy respective favorites. I will use both in my multi-race wagers, but I do not believe either is a sure thing. Champagne Anyone is a filly that has caught my eye, and Chocolate Kisses is my Oaks bomb.

Finally, back at a mile, Got Stormy in the Distaff Turf Mile is one horse that could really make my weekend. She will not be one of the favorites, and I think she is ready to run huge for trainer Mark Casse. I will be using her on all tickets in that Derby day race.

Kentucky derby 2019 betting tips horse racing

A couple of notes here: If any of my top Kentucky Derby picks draw the rail, I will likely alter this ticket. Look for post draw remarks within the comments section of this blog. Also, if the weather goes bad, as it did last year, I would also look to make some simple changes to the bet.

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The Kentucky Derby is always one of the toughest races to bet on every year, and this year it shapes up to be tougher than usual - potentially much tougher. There is no clear standout, and many runners in the field are legitimately in the mix. Just thinking about it gives me a headache, and there are still five days to go before the race. Narrowing it down to the best bets is going to be very tough, but to help you in that pursuit here are three free Kentucky Derby tips:

Baffert will be a factor: There are people out there who hate Bob Baffert. I can't figure that out. Then there are those, like me, who think he's the best trainer on the planet. No matter which camp you belong in, though, there is just no way you can disregard his collection of runners in this race.

Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips Horse Racing

He has three horses entered, and all of them could very easily win this race. They are installed as the second and co-third favorites on the morning line. And though horses typically get a Baffert boost in the odds, that is right where they belong. Game Winner and Roadster weren't done any favors being placed in the auxiliary starting gate, but neither one needs to be near the lead early, so they aren't going to be in too much trouble because of that. And Improbable, in the six hole, is in good position to push for the lead if he chooses to or to settle in if patience seems to be in order. All three of these horses have viable paths to a win, the breeding to handle the distance, and riders good enough to get through the chaos successfully. If, at the very least, Baffert doesn't wind up somewhere in the Top 3 this year, that would qualify as a major upset.

Kentucky Derby

Go deep: By this point most years I have narrowed my list of top contenders and most likely winners down to just two or three horses. At this point last year, the list was at one. Right now, I am at five - the three Baffert horses, Omaha Beach and Tacitus . And I feel like War of Will should probably be included as well, though I don't love his inside draw. And horses like Maximum Security, Vekoma, and Tax deserve plenty of respect. And I'm not ruling out colts like Win Win Win, Haikal, or By My Standards. The first Kentucky Derby I attended in person was in 1996 when Grindstone won. The long shot in that 19-horse field was only 29/1, and you couldn't easily toss out more than a small handful of the runners. This field is almost as deep. Runners like Master Fencer and Gray Magician are pretty easy to toss here, but you still need to be dealing with a whole lot of runners here. This is probably not the kind of year where you let it ride on one horse, and if you are going to bet exotics you will really need to go deep.

Assume nothing when it comes to the pace: The pace scenario in this race is very muddy , and nothing about the draw cleared things up much. Maximum Security is the only horse that seems to need the lead, and running out of the seven hole he should be positioned to get up if he breaks well. War of Will drew the rail unfortunately, but Mark Casse has repeatedly said the colt will be going to the lead, and if he breaks well, he can probably get it done from there.

Kentucky derby odds

Churchill Downs

One of those two is likely to lead. But if one of the two can't get there, then we might not have a duel that can speed things up. And if only one of the two gets to the lead, then anything can happen. Maximum Security got the lead in the Florida Derby and was relatively unchallenged, so he happily settled in at an almost glacial pace, so he isn't necessarily going to look to run away with things.

And beyond that there are several unknowns. Omaha Beach and Improbable, in particular, are colts that could potentially challenge for the early lead if things set up well for them, and both are in positions where their jockeys can pounce if an opportunity is there for them. Tax is another horse, sitting in the No. 2 spot, who likes to be near the lead and could determine that leading is his best shot if things look good for him. Add it all up, and it is very tough to know what will happen in the first half mile of this race. We could see a 44- or 45-second pace, or we could see something notably slower than that. Without certainty about the pace, we can't confidently judge how the closers will fare or what the race will look like for those mid-pack.

Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips 1x2

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