Pot Odds Explained
Pot odds refers to the price of calling a bet relative to the size of the pot. For example, if the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $100, then you have to call $100 to win $200 (their bet plus. What Are Pot Odds? Pot odds represent the ratio between the size of the total pot and the size of the bet facing you. Keep in mind that the size of the total pot includes the bet (s) made in the current round. For example, if there is $2 in the pot and your opponent bets $1, your pot odds are 3 to 1. Whenever the pot odds are greater than the drawing odds, it is correct to call. In this example the pot odds are giving you 7:1 on a 4:1 draw. You can call this bet every day and expect to profit over the long term. What I mean by “profit over the long term” is best explained using an example.
Pot odds
Pot odds are defined as the ratio between the size of the pot and the bet facing you. For example, if there is $4 in the pot and your opponent bets $1, you are being asked to pay one-fifth of the pot in order to have a chance of winning it.
Put simply, pot odds means is there enough in the pot to call a bet. The fundamental principle of playing a drawing hand in poker is that you need a pot big enough to call. When we have a flush draw or a straight draw we will make our hand on the next card almost 20%. Poker pot odds are a mathematical expression of risk and reward. Pot odds tell you how much do you need to risk in order to win a reward. It is the ratio between the reward and the risk.
A call of $1 to win $5 represents pot odds of 5:1.
If you are asked to pay $1 to win $10, you have odds of 10:1. If you need to find $3 to win $9, you have 3:1 and so on.
(Note: The size of the pot refers to the chips that are already in the pot, as well as all the bets made in the current betting round.)
Once you have determined the pot odds, you need to determine the odds of hitting your draw.
Odds of hitting your draw
In the basics course we introduced the Rule of Two and Four, which offered an easy way of calculating your odds when holding a drawing hand on the flop.
In that lesson, we calculated your odds of winning a hand in a percentage, but it can also be displayed as a ratio between winning and losing. A 20% winning probability can be translated as 4:1 odds – you will lose four in five times.
The precise mathematics behind this is not crucial at this stage. But the chart below shows a list of the most common draws you face in Texas Hold’em and the approximate chance you have of hitting them.
The first column (“Outs”) shows the number of outs you have; the second column (“Odds flop to turn”) shows the chance of hitting the draw on the next card; the next column (“Odds flop to river”) shows the odds of hitting on turn or river, ie, on either of next two cards.
Comparing ratios to determine expected value
After you have found the two ratios, you must compare them against each other – the odds of you winning the hand (based on your outs) compared with the pots odds offered on your call.
If the pot odds are higher than your odds of winning, you should call (or raise, in exceptional circumstances). If your pot odds are lower than your chances of winning, you should fold.
Here are a couple of solid examples:
Example with the nut flush draw:
You have the nut flush draw (nine outs) on the turn and the pot is $6. Your opponent bets $1. There is now $7 in the pot ($6 + $1), and it is $1 to call. The pot odds are therefore 7:1.
your odds are 4:1 to hit your flush draw. The pot odds are higher. You should therefore call.
You can see why this call is correct by looking at the long-term picture. If you make this call 5 times, the odds says that you will hit your draw once on average. That means you stand to win $7 for every $5 (5 * $1) you invest. That is good business.’
Example of pot odds with a straight draw:
You have a gutshot straight draw (four outs) on the flop and there is $25 in the pot. Your opponent bets $5. There is now $30 in the pot ($25 + $5), and it is $5 to call. Your pot odds are therefore 6:1.
However, according to the table the odds of winning the hand are 11:1. You don’t have the right pot odds to call here and should therefore fold.
Again, a glance at the long-term picture reveals why this is so. In this instance, you would need to play twelve times in order to win $30. But those twelve calls would cost you $60 ($5 * 12) and so this is not profitable.
How to play against an all-in
If an opponent moves all in on the flop, you can make the same calculations as described above, but this time look at the “Odds Flop to River” column. If your opponent is all in, you have the advantage that no further bets are possible.
If you call, you therefore get to see not only the turn, but also the river without having to risk more chips.
Example of odds with a straight draw against an all-in:
You have an open-ended straight draw (eights outs) on the flop. There is $50 in the pot and your opponent moves all-in for $25. You therefore have pot odds of 75 to 25 ($50 plus the $25), and it’s $25 to call.
When simplified, the pot odds are 3:1, and if you call you get to see both the turn and the river. According to the column “Odds Flop to River” in the odds table, the odds of winning the hand are 2:1, and because the pot odds are higher, you should make the call.
Conclusion
Calculating odds and outs can seem difficult and time-consuming, especially if you are a beginner. But this process is critical to make the right decisions. If you continually play draws without getting the right odds, you will lose money in the long run.
There will always be players who don’t care about odds and call too often. These players will occasionally get lucky and win a pot, but mostly they will lose and pay for it.
On the other hand, you might be folding draws in situations where the odds are favorable. If you use the strategies in this article consistently, you can avoid mistakes and gain an edge over your opponents.
Avoiding results oriented thinking
Even if you have made a correct calculation of your expected value, the fact remains that you will often make a correct call yet still lose the pot. We have factored into the calculation that, for example, you will not hit a flush draw on three out of four occasions.
But you must remember that the key determining factor in these calculations is whether or not you are getting good “value” on your call in the long term. Cash games are essentially endless and you can re-buy if you lose your chips. We are therefore looking at the decision in the abstract and determining whether this would be a profitable play if you made it time and time again.
It is a mistake in cash game poker to base your decisions only on the results of one particular hand – or even one particular session. Sometimes you might make a good call and lose; sometimes you will make a bad call and win. But don’t allow the specific result alter your decision making. You should base it in mathematics.
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Pot odds is a fundamental and mathematical concept used in poker. Before you understand what pot odds are, take a look at the options below:
Option A: If you risk 1 cookie, you will get 2 cookies.
Option B: If you risk 1 cookie, you will get 5 cookies.
Which option will you choose? Definitely option B. You get 5 cookies for risking 1 cookie!
What if I replace cookie with 1 million dollars? How will it look like?
Option A: If you risk $1 million, you will get $2 million.
Option B: If you risk $1 million, you will get $5 million.
Notice any difference? The values have changed, but the ratio between the reward and risk is still the same. If you have noticed this difference, you have already grasped the meaning of pot odds!
So, without any further ado, let’s delve into the fundamental concept in poker!
What are Pot Odds in Poker?
Poker pot odds are a mathematical expression of risk and reward. Pot odds tell you how much do you need to risk in order to win a reward. It is the ratio between the reward and the risk.
Reward = Pot to be Won
The pot can be at any point of the game – preflop, flop, turn or river.
Risk = How much you need to risk in order to win the pot
The risk is the size of someone’s bet/raise/re-raise you are facing. It is the amount you need to call in order to win the pot.
Pot odds = Reward : Risk
It is the ratio of the size of the pot (reward) to the amount you have to call (risk).
For example:
If there is $6 in the pot and your opponent bets $3, the pot becomes $9. In order to win the pot of $9, you need to call $3. So, what are the odds?
Reward = $9 (Size of the Pot)
Risk = $3 (Size of the Call)
Pot Odds = $9(Reward):$3(Risk)
= 9:3, which can be simplified to 3:1
Hence, the pot odds are 3:1. You can look at these odds in two ways.
- You need to pay 1/3 of the pot for a chance to win the whole pot
- You will get 3X the reward of your risk
Poker Pot Odds Example
Alert! This can be a bit mathematical but an easy hack to learn the odds quickly is available right after the example.
So, have some patience and continue reading…
In this example, we will not be looking at the hole cards so that you are solely focussed on the concept of poker odds.
Here’s the situation: You are on the Button in a $1/$2 6-max game. The Under the Gun (UTG) calls $2. The Middle Position (MP) raises to $5. Let’s calculate the pot odds.
If you don’t know what positions are, go through this: Poker Positions Explained
Preflop
Total pot (Reward) = $1 (small blind) +$2 (big blind) + $2 (UTG’s call) + $5 (MP’s raise)
= $10
Amount to Call (Risk) = $5
Pot Odds = $10 (Reward):$5 (Risk)
= 2:1
You decide to call, and others fold. The total pot is now $15 ($10 in the pot + $5 your call)
Flop
On the flop, the MP makes a half-size pot bet of $7.5. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $15 (already in the pot) + $7.5 (MP’s bet)
= $22.5
Amount to Call = $7.5
Pot Odds = $22.5:$7.5
= 3:1
You decide to call, and the total pot is now $30 ($22.5 in the pot +$7.5 your call).
Turn
On the turn, the MP makes a quarter of a pot-size bet of $7.5. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $30 (already in the pot) + $7.5 (MP’s bet)
= $37.5
Amount to Call = $7.5
Pot Odds = $37.5:$7.5
= 5:1
You decide to call, and the total pot is now $45 ($37.5 in the pot + $7.5 your call).
River
On the river, the MP makes a full pot-size bet of $45. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $45 (already in the pot) + $45 (MP’s bet)
= $90
Amount to Call = $45
Pot Odds = $90:$45
= 2:1
The pot odds on the river is now 2:1. So, if you call, you will get 2X the reward for your call.
As you can see, the odds increase or decrease on different streets. By using the poker odds, you get a clear picture of the reward you will earn for the risk you take.
A Shortcut to Know Your Pot Odds
An easy way to know the odds is to know how much is in the pot and the percentage of the pot your opponent bets.
- What’s the Pot Size?
- What Percentage of the Pot is Your Opponent Betting?
For example, if the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $25, you can say that he is making a 1/4 pot-size bet or he is betting 25% of the pot.
You can save this chart or print it and paste it on a wall next to your computer.
Why are Pot Odds used in Poker?
Pot odds tell you the ratio between the reward and the risk. It helps you to understand how much you need to risk to win the reward. But the real question is, “Is it worth the risk?” For that, you need to compare your card odds with the pot odds.
What are Card Odds?
It is the ratio of cards in the deck that you don’t want to the cards that you want. In other words, it is the ratio of unwanted cards and outs. If you don’t know what outs are, you can click here: How to Calculate Outs in Poker.
Card Odds = Cards we don’t need : Cards we need
Let’s look at the example below to understand this concept better:
Your Hand: 7♦ 6♦
Flop: 8♦ K♣ 2♦
Your opponent bets $25 into a pot of $100. The total pot is $125. You need to call $25 for a chance to win $125.
So, the pot odds are $125:$25 or 5:1.
In this scenario, you have 9 outs to complete your flush draw. Let’s calculate the odds now.
- A deck has 52 cards.
- We know 5 cards out of those 52 cards – Our 2 Hole Cards and 3 cards on the Flop.
- 52 – 5 = 47. There are 47 cards in the deck that we don’t know.
- There are 9 outs that will help us to make the flush. We need those 9 cards (outs).
- 47 – 9 = 38. We don’t need those 38 cards.
- Card Odds = Cards we don’t need : Cards we need
- Card Odds = 38:9
- 38:9 can be simplified as 4.2:1 or roughly 4:1
The card odds tell us that the odds of hitting a diamond-suited card is 4:1. This means that there is a possibility that a diamond-suited card is in the deck once every 4 cards. In other words, for every 4 times, you won’t hit a diamond, 1 time you will.
Compare Pot Odds with Card Outs
The golden rule is that thepot odds should be greater than the card outs. When the odds from the pot are bigger than the odds of hitting an out, you will be winning more money than losing in the long run. So, the reward should be bigger than the risk.
Pot Odds > Card Outs
In the above example, we have the following odds:
Pot Odds = 5:1
Card Odds = 4:1
Pot Odds > Card Outs
We should call here as the pot odds are greater than card odds.
Card Odds Chart
It may be very difficult to do the addition and division to find the card odds while playing poker. You can save this card odds chart or print it to paste it on the wall. The chart has the common draw scenarios with the poker outs that you might face while playing poker. With a bit of practice, you will remember the important card odds.
* The last column All-in on the Flop (2 Cards to Come) is in a situation when you or your opponent go all-in on the flop. In an all-in situation, you don’t have to call bets on the turn or river. So, you will see 2 cards till the river. Seeing 2 cards instead of 1 improves your odds.
Let’s look at the example below for a quick exercise.
Your Hand: 7♦ 6♦
Turn: 8♦ K♣ 2♦ J♠
You have a flush draw with 9 outs.
Bet Size #1
Your opponent makes a quarter of a pot-size bet of $25 into a pot of $100. The total pot is now $125. You need to call $25 for a chance to win $125.
Pot Odds: 5:1 ($125:$25)
Card Odds: 4.1:1 (Look at the chart)
Pot Odds > Card Odds
Here, you can call as the pot odds are greater than the card odds. This means that you will be winning more money than losing in the long run.
Bet Size #2
In the same example, if your opponent makes a full pot-size bet of $100 into a pot of $100, the total pot becomes $200. You need to call $100 for a chance to win $200.
Pot Odds: 2:1 ($200:$100)
Card Odds: 4.1:1 (Look at the chart)
Card Odds > Pot Odds
Here, the card odds are greater than the pot odds. Although you might hit a flush on the river, calling here won’t be profitable in the long run. So, it will be wise to fold here.
Calculating Pot Odds Using the Percentage Method
Another way of calculating odds in poker is by using the percentage method. There are three simple steps in calculating the odds using the percentage method.
Step 1: Calculate the Final Pot
This is the major difference between the ratio method and the percentage method. In the percentage method, you need to add your call amount to the total pot to calculate the final pot. For example, if there is $6 in the pot and your opponent bets $3, the total pot becomes $9. Now add your call amount, which is $3, to calculate the final pot.
Total Pot = $6 (Already in the pot) + $3 (Opponent’s Bet)
= $9
Final Pot = $9 (Total Pot) + $3 (Call Amount)
= $12
Step 2: Divide the Call Amount by the Final Pot
Call Amount = $3
Final Pot = $12
3/12 = 0.25
Step 3: Multiply by 100
Multiply by 100 to get the percentage.
0.25 X 100 = 25%
So, the pot odds are 25%.
Poker Pot Odds Example Using the Percentage Method
Alert! This can be a bit mathematical but an easy hack to learn the odds quickly is available right after the example.
So, have some patience and continue reading…
Let’s review the example without looking at the hole cards to find the odds percentage.
You are on the Button in a $1/$2 6-max game. The Under the Gun (UTG) calls $2. The Middle Position (MP) raises to $5. Let’s calculate the odds.
Preflop
Total pot = $1 (small blind) +$2 (big blind) + $2 (UTG’s call) + $5 (MP’s raise)
= $10
Amount to Call = $5
Final Pot = $10 (Total Pot) + $5 (Call Amount)
= $15
Pot Odds = $5 (Call Amount) / $15 (Final Pot)
= 0.33
0.33 X 100 = 33%
So, the pot odds are 33%.
You decide to call, and others fold. The total pot is now $15 ($10 in the pot + $5 your call)
Flop
On the flop, the MP makes a half-size pot bet of $7.5. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $15 (already in the pot) + $7.5 (MP’s bet)
= $22.5
Amount to Call = $7.5
Final Pot = $22.5 (Total Pot) + $7.5 (Call Amount)
= $30
Pot Odds = $7.5 (Call Amount) / $30 (Final Pot)
= 0.25
0.25 X 100 = 25%
So, the pot odds are 25%.
You decide to call, and the total pot is now $30 ($22.5 in the pot +$7.5 your call).
Turn
On the turn, the MP makes a quarter of a pot-size bet of $7.5. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $30 (already in the pot) + $7.5 (MP’s bet)
= $37.5
Amount to Call = $7.5
Final Pot = $37.5 (Total Pot) + $7.5 (Call Amount)
= $45
Pot Odds = $7.5 (Call Amount) / $45 (Final Pot)
= 0.17
0.17 X 100 = 17%
So, the pot odds are 17%.
You decide to call, and the total pot is now $45 ($37.5 in the pot + $7.5 your call).
River
On the river, the MP makes a full pot-size bet of $45. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $45 (already in the pot) + $45 (MP’s bet)
= $90
Amount to Call = $45
Final Pot = $90 (Total Pot) + $45 (Call Amount)
= $135
Pot Odds = $45 (Call Amount) / $135 (Final Pot) = 0.33
0.33 X 100 = 33%
So, the pot odds are 33%.
A Shortcut to Know Your Pot Odds Percentage
Pot Odds Practice
An easy way to know the odds is to know how much is in the pot and the percentage of the pot your opponent bets.
- What’s the Pot Size?
- What Percentage of the Pot is Your Opponent Betting?
For example, if the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $25, you can say that he is making a 1/4 pot-size bet or he is betting 25% of the pot.
You can save this pot odds chart or print it and paste it on a wall next to your computer.
How is the Percentage used in Poker?
In the percentage method, you need to find the card equity and compare it with odds percentage to make a decision. Card equity is as same as card odds. Instead of using a ratio, it is expressed in percentage.
How to Find Card Equity?
How Do Pot Odds Work
Card equity can be accurate if you know what range of hands your opponents are holding. There are many equity calculators available online. Since this is an introductory chapter on poker pot odds, we will teach you the simplest way to calculate card equity.
On the Flop Waiting for the Turn – Number of Outs X 4
On the Turn Waiting for the River – Number of Outs X 2
Let’s look at the example below to calculate the equity.
Your Hand: 7♦ 6♦
Flop: 8♦ K♣ 9♠
You have an open-ended straight draw with 8 outs.
Equity = 8 outs x 4
= 32%
Turn: 8♦ K♣ 9♠ 2♥
Equity = 8 x 2
= 16%
Compare Pot Odds with Equity
The golden rule is that theequity should be greater than the pot odds. When the equity is greater than the pot odds, you will be winning more money than losing in the long run. Here, the reward is bigger than the risk.
Equity > Pot Odds
Let’s look at the example below to compare the odds and equity.
Your Hand: 7♦ 6♦
Turn: 8♦ K♣ 2♦ J♠
You have a flush draw with 9 outs.
Bet Size #1
Your opponent makes a quarter of a pot-size bet of $25 into a pot of $100. The total pot is now $125. The final pot is $150 (total pot + call amount).
Pot Odds: 17% (25/150 X 100)
Equity: 9 (outs) X 2 (Turn)
= 18%
Equity > Pot Odds
Here, you can call as the equity is greater than the pot odds. This means that you will be winning more money than losing in the long run.
Bet Size #2
In the same example, if your opponent makes a full pot-size bet of $100 into a pot of $100, the total pot becomes $200. The final pot is $300 (total pot + call amount).
Pot Odds: 33% (100/300 X 100)
Equity: 9 (outs) X 2 (Turn)
= 18%
Pot Odds > Equity
Implied Pot Odds Explained
Here, the pot odds are greater than the equity. Although you might hit a flush on the river, calling here won’t be profitable in the long run. So, it will be wise to fold here.
An easy way to find out how much equity is required for you to call is to find out the percentage of the pot your opponent bets. Remember these odds against your opponent’s bet sizes.
Conclusion
How To Calculate Pot Odds
It might be a little overwhelming for the first time to grasp the concept of pot odds. However, with a bit of practice, you will get used to it. We recommend you to save all the charts or print them and paste it on the wall to take quick decisions. Poker is a mathematical game, and if you get your numbers right, you will always win money in the long run!